
Cycle Projection
Where could this cycle go next?
Where earlier cycles would place price from here, anchored to the quantile fan.
Bitcoin position (risk · fair value · support)
Low risk
26 / 100
Fair value: $113.4k
-43.9% below
Band: $69.6k–$69.9k
-5.8% below
Current read
Years from each cycle’s starting top · 0% = that top
Market backdrop
Total Market Cap
Expanding · +0.0%
$0.00T
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Fear & Greed
Expanding · +0.0%
$0.00T
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BTC Dominance
Expanding · +0.0%
$0.00T
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Stablecoin Supply
Expanding · +0.0%
$0.00T
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Live price, current cycle position, and key valuation models.
Bitcoin position(risk · fair value · support)
Low risk
26 / 100
Fair value: $113.4k
-43.9% below
Band: $69.6k–$69.9k
Current read
Where this cycle stands against the four before it – how long each one lasted, how deep it fell, and what it returned.
Years from each cycle’s starting top · 0% = that top
Sentiment, liquidity and dominance – the market Bitcoin trades in.
Market backdrop
Total Market Cap
Expanding · +0.0%
$0.00T
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Fear & Greed
Expanding · +0.0%
$0.00T
Compare risk, cycle position, support levels and projected scenarios across every tracked asset.
-5.8% below
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BTC Dominance
Expanding · +0.0%
$0.00T
Open market cap chart →
Stablecoin Supply
Expanding · +0.0%
$0.00T
Open market cap chart →
38 models and 132 charts across 12 assets – valuation bands, risk metrics, cycle context and on-chain activity. The dashboard above reads from them; a free account opens them.

Where could this cycle go next?
Where earlier cycles would place price from here, anchored to the quantile fan.

How stretched is the market right now?
Up to eight risk components blended into one 0 to 1 score.

Is price cheap or expensive against its history?
Quantile regression bands over the full price history, from floor to ceiling.

Price coloured by how far it trades above its 200-week moving average.

Each cycle's return since its bottom, overlaid day by day.

How stretched is the market right now?
Up to eight risk components blended into one 0 to 1 score.
Market cycle position(4-year cycle)
Phase cycle: Bitcoin is in the Contraction year of its four-year cycle (2023 to 2026), with about 2 months left in the cycle. 2026 is −11.1% so far. The Cycle Projection model puts it at $62.3k on 31 Dec ’26, −28.8% for the full year.
Expected low ~Oct ’26 · Halving ~Apr ’28
Years from each cycle’s starting top · 0% = that top
Bitcoin is 27% through Cycle 5, which started at the $126.3k top on Oct ’25 and is −38.4% since. Completed cycles returned a typical +378% top to top, and a typical +2627% from their low to the next top. 0% = the Oct ’25 top – its $126.3k intraday high on 2025-10-06, the same all-time-high basis the cycle matrix quotes. A cycle is named after the top that ENDS it, so Cycle 5 starts at the top that ended Cycle 4 – the drawdown is part of it, which is why the running return is negative. 100% = that top plus 1443 days – the average of the last 3 peak-to-peak cycles (1478, 1424, 1426 days), i.e. ~Sep ’29. The next top has no date yet; this is the rhythm, not a forecast. Past cycles bottomed 410, 363, 376 days after their top (average 383). From the Oct ’25 top that lands around Oct ’26. It is a rhythm, not a forecast – the cycle is measured top to top.
Bitcoin 1Y change -29.0 percent – from $109,555 on 31 Oct 2025 to $77,770 on 30 Oct 2026.
Model readings use daily closes and asset-specific calibration. Projections are cycle-based scenarios, not forecasts. Explore every model →
Current read
Bitcoin remains in mid-cycle territory, but trades below fair value while holding above the bull-market support band as sentiment and liquidity remain weak.
Market backdrop
BTC Dominance
Bitcoin-led·+1.3 pp
59.9%
Stablecoin Supply
Contracting·-3.7%
$301B